Last year, Dutch bank ABN Amro took over Italy-based Banco Antonveneta. To many investors, this seemed a very risky move as the Italian banking industry is not known to be the easiest one to break into. ABN Amro has certainly experienced this, but succeeded at the end of the day. Banco Antonveneta, being the eight largest banking group in Italy, only holds a 3% market share in the Italian market and should therefore certainly not be considered the end of ABN Amro's Italian ambitions.
Keeping in mind the above whilst also considering the 7.7% stake that ABN Amro holds in Rome-based Capitalia Gruppo Bancario (MIB:CAP), the most likely scenario is easy to guess. Reuters also mentions that 'corporate marriage' is high on shareholders' agendas.
With net profit expected to rise 27% to EUR 1.4 bln, the bank is certainly expected to perform well, which is also reflected in the share price. To a certain extent, the share price includes an acquisition premium, but this premium did partly evaporate as Banca Intesa and Sanpaolo IMI merged to create Italy's biggest domestic lender and a European top eight bank.
ABN Amro focuses on Antonveneta "for the time being", so says ABN Amro CEO Rijkman Groenink. No further comments were given with regard to a potential merger of Antonveneta and Italy's fourth largest bank Capitalia, but the likelihood increases day by day. Speculative buy at a current price of EUR 7.10.
27 November 2006
Capitalia: the next prey?
Last year, Dutch bank ABN Amro took over Italy-based Banco Antonveneta. To many investors, this seemed a very risky move as the Italian banking industry is not known to be the easiest one to break into. ABN Amro has certainly experienced this, but succeeded at the end of the day. Banco Antonveneta, being the eight largest banking group in Italy, only holds a 3% market share in the Italian market and should therefore certainly not be considered the end of ABN Amro's Italian ambitions.
Keeping in mind the above whilst also considering the 7.7% stake that ABN Amro holds in Rome-based Capitalia Gruppo Bancario (MIB:CAP), the most likely scenario is easy to guess. Reuters also mentions that 'corporate marriage' is high on shareholders' agendas.
With net profit expected to rise 27% to EUR 1.4 bln, the bank is certainly expected to perform well, which is also reflected in the share price. To a certain extent, the share price includes an acquisition premium, but this premium did partly evaporate as Banca Intesa and Sanpaolo IMI merged to create Italy's biggest domestic lender and a European top eight bank.
ABN Amro focuses on Antonveneta "for the time being", so says ABN Amro CEO Rijkman Groenink. No further comments were given with regard to a potential merger of Antonveneta and Italy's fourth largest bank Capitalia, but the likelihood increases day by day. Speculative buy at a current price of EUR 7.10.
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