20 August 2008

What we do for money and how we fail to see the signals

The first eight months of the year are almost behind us and with 99% certainty we can say that 2008 will not be positively remembered for anything except maybe for the Beijing Olympics. Although even that event has had some nasty controversies surrounding it, such as the Tibet situation, Phelps' victory over Cavic, two disqualifications on the 200 metres and the alleged doping use of heptathlon silver medalist Lyudmila Blonska. I wouldn't be surprised if some Jamaican heads are next on the chopping block (every winner is considered suspicious these days).
There is certainly a link between the Olympics, today's political issues and today's economic issues. All have something to do with two things: power and money. Nowadays, being a good sport just doesn't count anymore. The more money & power dominate life, the more you'll see vile games being played.
To see what roles money and power play in the arena of foreign politics, one only needs to read recent cover stories on Georgia. Georgia is important because it's the United States' only way left to get oil and gas out of the Caspian. The EU would never even think of training Georgian soldiers as Russia could simply retaliate by shutting down gas pipelines, leaving two thirds of Europe in darkness.
Many believe that those who have the energy sources will have the power in the years to come. Russia is well aware of this and so is the US. For many decades, the US have increased their power through its dollar hegemony, through eliminating the gold standard and through maintaining close ties with the net exporters of fossil fuels. Although that last part hasn't always been very successful, considering the somewhat fragile relationships with Russia, Venezuela and Iran.
Similar to Governments, companies have done a lot for money and power as well. As a marketeer, I always believed that becoming a world leader in your company's playing field should never be a target 'an sich'. It is a daft and empty target that says nothing about how financially successful your company is or about what you have actually contributed to society. Nowadays, have exactly that in mind: growing at any cost. Companies that grow into new markets and new geographies through endless takeovers always remind me of those guys at school that were usually the best at sports but with the lowest grades in anything other than sports.
Takeovers of companies has for many companies become a target by itself. And the preferred takeover targets are often competitors, because they are the quickest way to grow market share. First of all, I think it should be a rule to never take over a competitor as integration is often impossible and corporate cultures are usually not compatible. But also for the simple fact that these kinds of takeovers usually go hand-in-hand with mass layoffs. The airline industry is a good example of that.
Companies have become bigger and bigger and thereby slower to respond to changing environments. Current fuel prices have pretty much single-handedly eliminated half the world's airlines. Most have been swallowed by competitors, who gave a different meaning to the word synergies. Synergy used to be a positive word, describing how the outcome of a system is greater than the sum of its parts. Beautifully said, but I don't think the ancient Greeks had mass layoffs in mind when they invented the word synergy.
Having said that, I do greatly respect companies who have clear long-term business strategies that are not simply focused on absolute power, but at the added value that products and services should offer customers and how society as a whole will benefit. It's hard to find such companies these days. Even companies created to help people in financing their mortgages to provide them a home for their families have completely forgotten their raison-d'etre. I am obviously referring to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Government-sponsored entities (GSEs) that were supposed to support home ownership and rental housing. Being listed companies, they had shareholders to report to and these shareholders were interested in one thing only: money. They wanted money and they wanted it fast. The mortgage industry as a whole has become so focused on 'quick wins' that its greed destroyed itself, a bit like a dog chasing its own tail and then eating it.
We are clearly being sent a message that the greed and materialism of this world is not the right way, but blinded by our own greed, we fail to see the signals. And so, history repeats itself in a funny way. In the first half of the 20th Century, two world wars and an economic depression were the signals that we received. Now, we have once again forgotten what greed and military world hegemony did to all major world powers ever since man started writing down history.
Keepin all this in mind, I am clearly taking a defensive standpoint when it comes to my investment decisions. I recently bought gold coins with some of my savings and I only short financials and indices and buy junior companies that I believe in. As I mentioned, the bigger companies get, the more they lose their ability to quickly respond to changes. And more than ever, we are now in a rapidly changing environment, that requires us to think about issues we never really needed to think about. We need to reconsider the bank(s) that we store our savings at. We may need to reconsider the vehicle that we use for transportation and possibly even the company that we work for.
If I may repeat: our savings aren't safe. Our pension schemes aren't safe. Our houses aren't safe and our jobs aren't safe. And still, too many people are denying the signals that we are getting. People are still borrowing money from their banks to invest in companies that are screaming to be bailed out by tax payers. All this once again proves that a pair of eyes may allow us to read, a pair of ears may allow us to listen, but we really need a brain to see.

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